Wow. It's just so cool to see you guys out there spreading some truth. Your courage is most commendable. I am an addict in recovery so topics like this are a passion of mine. I've fallen out at least a couple of dozen times, but somehow through the grace of God, I am still here. I wish I could say the same about many dear friends and people I've worked with in the recovery field. Most recently I was living in the Boston area and associated with one of the largest programs in the city. What this drug is doing to our communities is borderline apocalyptic in my opinion. I find it very interesting that 9/11, which was said to be the deadliest attack in U.S. history killed just over 3,000 people and our "response" was what somw might call a global crusade, yet the Fentanyl crisis, which kills over 100,000 American's a year, goes seemingly unchecked. Unless we are to believe that all of a sudden the fentanyl fairy is just sprinkling this poison over our country I think that there are some very important "issues" that need to be brought to life. As we seem to be on the brink of YET ANOTHER GLOBAL WAR I have to question the intentions of who and what are influencing our D.C. agenda. It's heroes like the both of you that give me strength and hope and you both deserve Medals of Honor in my humble opinion. I myself , think it's time to stand up to this SLAUGHTER of so so many beautiful people! God bless both of you.✌️🙏♥️☀️
I think the fentanyl crisis can mostly be explained as an artifact of 21st Century Modernity. The world of high technology and global interconnectedness has created unprecedented opportunities for all sorts of social, cultural, and market phenomena, including corrosive ones.
I don't think anyone except for criminal entrepreneurs and their clientele actually LIKES the unprecedented ease of the ability to penetrate and exploit national borders in order to run organized crime syndicates beyond the easy reach of law enforcement. This doesn't just go for the transshipment of illegal drugs across national borders, and the Dark Web wholesale-retail markets in the substances and their precursors. Cyberworld has also opened up unprecedented vistas for child pornography; email scams; cryptocurrency scams, money laundering, and theft; espionage on all fronts, ranging from the most sensitive realms of national security down to the individual level. Those activities are very resistant to being suppressed. When it comes to investigating criminal activities hosted in foreign nations, the language barriers alone multiply the complications, sometimes to the point of intractability.
The proliferation of ultrapotent synthetic drugs- including newly invented analogs, which are increasingly designed with the help of another high tech feature, computer modeling- was given a massive boost from the unheralded expansion of international parcel shipping. Even the shipment of (relatively) more voluminous drugs like cocaine has been given a boost by the expansion in container shipping. Police seized 116 metric TONS of cocaine in Belgium alone in 2023. https://www.euronews.com/2024/01/17/record-amount-of-cocaine-seized-in-belgium-in-2023-as-eu-faces-rise-in-drug-related-violen
Assuming that the product was uncut and >90% purity at the point of interdiction, that's 116 million grams of powder- or, assuming a 50/50 split of hydrochloride and freebase, 58 million grams of powder and over 1 billion crack rocks. More than estimated total US national annual demand in the peak years of the American "crack era" of the 1980s. No one thinks those seizures have come close to shutting down the cocaine market in Europe, not even the law enforcement agencies that seized the drugs. And cocaine has a massive agricultural and industrial footprint, compared to the manufacture of substances like fentanyl and carfentanil.
In the US, the most hopeful sign for the waning of the fentanyl epidemic is that there's been a steep drop over the past ten years in the number of teenagers experimenting with illicit drugs- especially hard drugs, including opioids. The Monitoring The Future program at U. Michigan has been doing well-constructed and comprehensive surveys of drug use (both licit and illicit) in American 8th, 10th, and 12th graders since 1975, and the numbers of students initiating opioid use are very low. The 2023 report was just issued Wednesday. (For some reason, good news about declining drug use among teenagers gets very little attention in the American news media. Even reported cannabis use is down markedly, compared with only a few years ago.)
The major flaw I notice is that the survey is unable to keep track of the school dropout population. But the trends since around 2014 among high school students indicate that the Oxycontin epidemic that boosted opioid use so much in American youth in the era from around 1996-2014 is over. Without that recruitment among youth, it's unlikely that the opioid addiction crisis will maintain its present level.
That said, the level of lethality from opioid overdose is likely to continue for some years into the future. It's entirely possible that it could get worse, especially if more powerful substances like carfentanil continue to replace fentanyl in the illicit retail marketplace. But no conspiracy is required in order to meet opioid demand in a marketplace of synthetic substances where one kilogram of freshly manufactured pure fentanyl can supply 10 million 100 microgram doses, and one kilogram of carfentanil, which is 50 times as powerful, can supply 500 million doses.
I had to check my math on the previous numbers, even though it's an easy calculation. That's how mind-boggling the situation is. No matter how many times I've looked at charts like the one in the link below, I think to myself "No, that cannot be." But it is.
I'm just working off of the people who have done the heavy lifting by writing actual books, like yourself. And Ioan Grillo, and Misha Glenny, and Moises Naim, and R.T. Naylor, and Peter Dale Scott, Michael Levine, Charles Bowden, Carmen Boullosa & Mike Wallace, Seth Ferranti, et. al.
I'm still working on my own first book on this subject. None too diligently, alas. As a writer, I'd much rather play live than work in the studio, so to speak. Even when the audience is only one or two people. Writer's block disappears, once I have someone else's commentary to prompt me. I find it really aggravating that I have such a difficulty being a self-starter.
Nevertheless,I have some newly written posts that are nearly complete and ready for the Drug War part of my Substack, on the current conundrums associated with the Halfway Legalized status of cannabis in the US.
I'm still frustrated by my failure to turn up the source for what I had intended as the next post of my chronological historical narrative- a historical comparison of the way marijuana caught on so fast with American youth in the 1960s and the speed with which young British men of the 17th and 18th century adopted the tobacco habit, once Walter Raleigh made it a commodity of export from the mid-Atlantic colonies. The similarities are quite remarkable- but I failed to note my reading sources! Still looking.
I found some great quotes in my reading. Tobacco use- and indoor smoking, in public venues- was recognized early on as an unhealthy and harmful habit, particularly by the Older Generation. But at least the British of the 17th century had the sense to refrain from criminalizing the burgeoning population of young tobacco smokers.
Wow. It's just so cool to see you guys out there spreading some truth. Your courage is most commendable. I am an addict in recovery so topics like this are a passion of mine. I've fallen out at least a couple of dozen times, but somehow through the grace of God, I am still here. I wish I could say the same about many dear friends and people I've worked with in the recovery field. Most recently I was living in the Boston area and associated with one of the largest programs in the city. What this drug is doing to our communities is borderline apocalyptic in my opinion. I find it very interesting that 9/11, which was said to be the deadliest attack in U.S. history killed just over 3,000 people and our "response" was what somw might call a global crusade, yet the Fentanyl crisis, which kills over 100,000 American's a year, goes seemingly unchecked. Unless we are to believe that all of a sudden the fentanyl fairy is just sprinkling this poison over our country I think that there are some very important "issues" that need to be brought to life. As we seem to be on the brink of YET ANOTHER GLOBAL WAR I have to question the intentions of who and what are influencing our D.C. agenda. It's heroes like the both of you that give me strength and hope and you both deserve Medals of Honor in my humble opinion. I myself , think it's time to stand up to this SLAUGHTER of so so many beautiful people! God bless both of you.✌️🙏♥️☀️
I think the fentanyl crisis can mostly be explained as an artifact of 21st Century Modernity. The world of high technology and global interconnectedness has created unprecedented opportunities for all sorts of social, cultural, and market phenomena, including corrosive ones.
I don't think anyone except for criminal entrepreneurs and their clientele actually LIKES the unprecedented ease of the ability to penetrate and exploit national borders in order to run organized crime syndicates beyond the easy reach of law enforcement. This doesn't just go for the transshipment of illegal drugs across national borders, and the Dark Web wholesale-retail markets in the substances and their precursors. Cyberworld has also opened up unprecedented vistas for child pornography; email scams; cryptocurrency scams, money laundering, and theft; espionage on all fronts, ranging from the most sensitive realms of national security down to the individual level. Those activities are very resistant to being suppressed. When it comes to investigating criminal activities hosted in foreign nations, the language barriers alone multiply the complications, sometimes to the point of intractability.
The proliferation of ultrapotent synthetic drugs- including newly invented analogs, which are increasingly designed with the help of another high tech feature, computer modeling- was given a massive boost from the unheralded expansion of international parcel shipping. Even the shipment of (relatively) more voluminous drugs like cocaine has been given a boost by the expansion in container shipping. Police seized 116 metric TONS of cocaine in Belgium alone in 2023. https://www.euronews.com/2024/01/17/record-amount-of-cocaine-seized-in-belgium-in-2023-as-eu-faces-rise-in-drug-related-violen
Assuming that the product was uncut and >90% purity at the point of interdiction, that's 116 million grams of powder- or, assuming a 50/50 split of hydrochloride and freebase, 58 million grams of powder and over 1 billion crack rocks. More than estimated total US national annual demand in the peak years of the American "crack era" of the 1980s. No one thinks those seizures have come close to shutting down the cocaine market in Europe, not even the law enforcement agencies that seized the drugs. And cocaine has a massive agricultural and industrial footprint, compared to the manufacture of substances like fentanyl and carfentanil.
In the US, the most hopeful sign for the waning of the fentanyl epidemic is that there's been a steep drop over the past ten years in the number of teenagers experimenting with illicit drugs- especially hard drugs, including opioids. The Monitoring The Future program at U. Michigan has been doing well-constructed and comprehensive surveys of drug use (both licit and illicit) in American 8th, 10th, and 12th graders since 1975, and the numbers of students initiating opioid use are very low. The 2023 report was just issued Wednesday. (For some reason, good news about declining drug use among teenagers gets very little attention in the American news media. Even reported cannabis use is down markedly, compared with only a few years ago.)
https://monitoringthefuture.org/results/annual-reports/
The major flaw I notice is that the survey is unable to keep track of the school dropout population. But the trends since around 2014 among high school students indicate that the Oxycontin epidemic that boosted opioid use so much in American youth in the era from around 1996-2014 is over. Without that recruitment among youth, it's unlikely that the opioid addiction crisis will maintain its present level.
That said, the level of lethality from opioid overdose is likely to continue for some years into the future. It's entirely possible that it could get worse, especially if more powerful substances like carfentanil continue to replace fentanyl in the illicit retail marketplace. But no conspiracy is required in order to meet opioid demand in a marketplace of synthetic substances where one kilogram of freshly manufactured pure fentanyl can supply 10 million 100 microgram doses, and one kilogram of carfentanil, which is 50 times as powerful, can supply 500 million doses.
I had to check my math on the previous numbers, even though it's an easy calculation. That's how mind-boggling the situation is. No matter how many times I've looked at charts like the one in the link below, I think to myself "No, that cannot be." But it is.
https://img.grepmed.com/uploads/4218/conversion-equianalgesic-pharmacology-pain-opioid-original.png
Very insightful observations! Thanks for your thoughts. You make a lot of good points here.
I'm just working off of the people who have done the heavy lifting by writing actual books, like yourself. And Ioan Grillo, and Misha Glenny, and Moises Naim, and R.T. Naylor, and Peter Dale Scott, Michael Levine, Charles Bowden, Carmen Boullosa & Mike Wallace, Seth Ferranti, et. al.
I'm still working on my own first book on this subject. None too diligently, alas. As a writer, I'd much rather play live than work in the studio, so to speak. Even when the audience is only one or two people. Writer's block disappears, once I have someone else's commentary to prompt me. I find it really aggravating that I have such a difficulty being a self-starter.
Nevertheless,I have some newly written posts that are nearly complete and ready for the Drug War part of my Substack, on the current conundrums associated with the Halfway Legalized status of cannabis in the US.
I'm still frustrated by my failure to turn up the source for what I had intended as the next post of my chronological historical narrative- a historical comparison of the way marijuana caught on so fast with American youth in the 1960s and the speed with which young British men of the 17th and 18th century adopted the tobacco habit, once Walter Raleigh made it a commodity of export from the mid-Atlantic colonies. The similarities are quite remarkable- but I failed to note my reading sources! Still looking.
I found some great quotes in my reading. Tobacco use- and indoor smoking, in public venues- was recognized early on as an unhealthy and harmful habit, particularly by the Older Generation. But at least the British of the 17th century had the sense to refrain from criminalizing the burgeoning population of young tobacco smokers.
Great to talk to you Ben. Your work on fentanyl has been extremely important and continues to teach me a lot.
Thanks for saying so Ioan. Great talking to you too.